Method 1 - Become an expert
The most difficult way to identify value is to become an expert in niche sports market by watching games, researching stats and forming an opinion superior to bookmakers and exchange users.
For example:
Deciding to specialise in Premier League offsides markets:
Keeping a comprehensive track of statistics
Teams who play a high line
Formations that result in high numbers
You will then easily be able to identify generous odds - this is easier said than done. This requires extensive dedication, and while it can be the most lucrative way to identify value, there are certainly easier methods.
Method 2 - Compare To Exchanges
One of the most straightforward ways to find value is to compare the bookmaker price to the exchange price.
For example, odds of 6.0 on a bookmaker, and 4.0 on the exchange. This MOST LIKELY constitutes a value bet. We assume the exchange price is the closest to true. However, points to note if using this strategy to identify value:
The more liquidity in the market, the more information to back up the bets, the more likely it is the odds are close to true odds.
The crowd can be wrong. Though exchanges are usually seen to be accurate with pricing, the crowd doesn't always get their opinion correct. Massive outsiders at 150/1 winning consistently at racing meets are good example of this.
Method 3 - Compare To Other Bookmakers
If there is little liquidity for your particular bet on an exchange, then another way to establish value is by comparing the odds on one bookmaker to the rest.
For example:
After looking in the shots on target market, you find a bet on Bet365 for Grealish to hit a shot on target at 2.4 odds, and you compare to other bookmakers:
​ | Bet365 | Paddypower | Skybet |
Odds | 2.4 | 1.6 | 1.8 |
It's clear that the other bookmakers consider Grealish to be lower odds, indicating a value bet.
However, there is an inherent risk with this method. Bookmakers have an incentive to understate the odds and offer odds much lower than the 'true' odds, and this will maximise their profit. Therefore, comparing to other bookmakers does not always necessarily suggest value.
To reduce the risk of this, it's best to compare odds with as many bookmakers as possible.