Understanding the drivers behind price changes on exchanges can be a lucrative skill to master. Knowing when to lay a bet to benefit from generous lay odds can increase your potential profits.
Ultimately, it is impossible to predict the correct movement, every time, as many factors come into play. However, learning the typical indicators of trends can be useful to add to your matched betting arsenal.
Understanding The Effects Of Liquidity
It is fundamental to understand that the only mover in prices on an exchange are changes in supply or demand. The more demand for a 'back' bet, the shorter the price, and vice versa.
Generally, the closer to the event, the more liquidity available into the market as bettors move from one event to another. Recreational bettors will also start to place their bets. This increases the demand, and is often why you see the favourite for an event drop in odds closer to the event (though not always!). This is especially common in events with high recreational fans, such as Premier League matches, or Cheltenham Festival.
As a general trend, odds on the favourite for a football match will be higher weeks before from the match than on the day of the match; assuming no external factors arise that influence prices such as injuries or transfers. This is due to the lower demand, usually only keen bettors aiming to grab a good price. The 'true' odds won't have reached equilibrium.
How to use this Knowledge
Doing a 2UP offer with this in mind:
You may decide to place a bet on the bookmaker in advance, and wait for the lay odds to drop on an exchange, as liquidity increases close to the match. This may enable you to lock in a guaranteed profit without the 2UP.
For example:
3 weeks before the fixture, Brentford were 3.2 to beat Spurs.
Closer to the match, the lay odds dropped as the exchange liquidity (supply) increased. This created an opportunity to lock in a guaranteed profit regardless of the match outcome, as well as potential profit from the 2UP offer.
Price Boosts and Liquidity
In an attempt to prevent matched bettors taking value, bookmakers often either boost a bet containing multiple variables, making it difficult to lay on an exchange.
For example:
Rodri to make 2 fouls and Grealish to have 2 or more shots on target
Or bookmakers may choose to boost selections with low liquidity.
For example:
Barcelona to win 2-0.
This often results in matched bettors comparing the boost against the true odds on an exchange. This usually results in a conclusion that there is no matched betting opportunity and the bet can be discarded.
For most price boosts, we recommend waiting until an hour before the event starts before laying. By this time, you may be able to profit from the boost.
Other Indicators
Along with liquidity, there are a few other indicators to be aware of when matched betting. These may help to decide whether to lay the bet now or hold off.
News - When lineups are announced and the best players are not starting, it may take 10-20 mins for this to have an effect on the price. If you are laying a match result, you may choose to wait if you think the news will favour your potential profit.
Arbitrage Opportunities - If a popular bookmaker is offering higher odds than the exchange on an event, bots and other arbitrage bettors will pick this up quickly. They will proceed to lay on the exchange immediately, while the odds are available, causing the exchange odds to increase.
Ratio of recreational punters to serious traders - On niche markets, such as Asian handicap markets, it is likely that the liquidity is comprised of traders and bots. As a result, you are less likely to spot a generous price and they will most likely remain stable as it gets closer to the event.