Arbitrage Middles
A middle is an arbitrage bet where if an event ends with a certain outcome, there is a chance to win both bets OR, win one bet and have the other voided. The chance to have one bet voided is mainly true when trading on Asian markets.
For example:
Man City under 20.5 shots - 1.53 at Bet365
Man City 20+ shots - 3.1 at PaddyPower
If Man City finish on exactly 20 shots, both bets will win.
A stake of £30 on Bet365 will return £46.
A stake of £16 on PaddyPower will return £49.60.
Total outlay of £46 (£30 + £16) will return £46 or £49.60 or £95.60 if exactly shots.
Profit of £0, £3.60, £49.60.
Although middles bets can be frustrating after a few occasions of merely breaking even, patience is key to eventually land a large win.
How do Middles work with Asian lines?
As mentioned above, one of the situations where a middle can arise is where one bet wins, and the other is voided (refunded). For detailed information regarding Asian markets, see our Asian Lines help guide here.
An Asian market that ends in ‘.0’, is one where there is the possibility of a refund.
Asian markets that end with ‘.5’ are not relevant in this section of the guide. However it is worth noting that Asian lines often offer higher odds for the exact same bet. For example, ‘Over 10 corners’ priced at 2.37, is exactly the same as ‘Over 10.5 asian total corners’ which is priced at 2.5.
A brief introduction into ‘.0’ asian lines
In Layman’s terms, the bet will win or lose if the corner/card/goal count is over or under the amount you chose. If the count is bang on the amount you chose, your bet will be refunded.
For example:
Possible outcomes
Under 11 corners - Bet365 wins
Over 12 corners - Sky wins
Exactly 11 corners - Sky wins, Bet365 will refund
We can use arbitrage middles to take advantage of this market feature as follows.
Under 12.0 asian total corners - 2.0 at Bet365. £15 stake
11+ total corners - 2.1 at Sky bet. £13 stake
To return £-2, £-2.10, £23.90
On some occasions, there may be a need to take a small qualifying loss in order to create a chance at higher profits. Although it may not immediately be as obvious as a regular ‘arb’, we have all possible outcomes covered.